1. Muaj dab tsi tshwm sim tam sim no?
Nws yog thawj lub lim tiam ntawm Lub Ib Hlis 2026. Lub ntiaj teb rau kev yuav hlau tau hloov pauv tag nrho. Peb tuaj yeem hu qhov no ua "Cov Ntaub Thaiv Hlau Uas Muaj Peev Xwm."
Tau nees nkaum xyoo dhau los no, peb tuaj yeem yuav cov hlau zoo li Tungsten lossis Cobalt los ntawm txhua qhov chaw. Lub sijhawm ntawd dhau lawm. Tam sim no, peb muaj ob lub khw sib cais. Ib lub khw nyob hauv Suav teb, thiab lwm lub nyob rau sab hnub poob. Lawv muaj cov nqi sib txawv thiab cov cai sib txawv.
Nov yog qhov kev tshawb fawb qhia tau tias tab tom tshwm sim lub lim tiam no:
●Tungsten:Tus nqi nce siab heev. Tuam Tshoj tswj hwm li ntawm 82% ntawm cov khoom xa tuaj. Lawv tsuas yog txiav tus nqi uas lawv yuav muag rau lub ntiaj teb. Tib lub sijhawm, Tebchaws Meskas tau pib them se 25% (tariff) rau Tuam Tshoj tungsten rau lub Ib Hlis 1st.
●Cobalt:Qhov xwm txheej hauv Congo (DRC) yog qhov tsis meej pem tab sis tseem ceeb heev. Lawv muab kev txwv rau ntau npaum li cas lawv yuav xa tawm. Lawv tau ncua lub sijhawm kawg me ntsis los pab cov tsheb thauj khoom hla ciam teb, tab sis tag nrho cov nyiaj tso cai rau xyoo 2026 tseem qis heev. Cov nqi dhia siab vim qhov no.
●Hlau Ceev (HSS):Qhov no yog cov hlau siv los ua cov cuab yeej txiav. Vim tias cov khoom xyaw (Tungsten thiab Cobalt) kim heev, cov nqi hlau nce siab. Tab sis cov chaw tsim khoom hauv Suav teb tau rov qab ua haujlwm ntau dua, yog li lawv yuav ntau hlau. Qhov no txhawb nqa cov nqi siab dua.
2. Tungsten: Ib Zaj Dab Neeg Txog Ob Lub Lag Luam
Kuv tau saib ze rau kev lag luam Tungsten lub lim tiam no. Nws yog qhov hlau tseem ceeb tshaj plaws rau kev ua cov cuab yeej tawv.
Sab Suav
Tuam Tshoj tau tshaj tawm nws daim ntawv teev npe tshiab ntawm cov tuam txhab uas tau tso cai rau kev xa tawm Tungsten rau lub Ib Hlis 2. Daim ntawv teev npe luv luv. Tsuas yog 15 lub tuam txhab tuaj yeem muag nws txawv teb chaws.1
Kuv tau saib cov nqi hauv Suav teb. Ib tuj ntawm "Black Tungsten Concentrate" tam sim no raug nqi ntau dua 356,000 RMB.2Qhov no yog qhov siab tshaj plaws. Vim li cas nws thiaj kim heev? Kuv pom tias cov neeg soj ntsuam ib puag ncig tab tom mus xyuas cov chaw zeb hauv xeev Jiangxi. Lawv yuam kom cov chaw zeb kaw rau kev kho. Yog li, tsuas yog muaj pob zeb tsawg dua tawm hauv av.
Sab Hnub Poob
Nyob rau hauv Tebchaws Europe thiab Amelikas, cov neeg yuav khoom ntshai heev. Tus nqi rau APT (ib hom tungsten) hauv Rotterdam tau nce mus txog $ 850 txog $ 1,000.3Qhov no siab dua li hauv Suav teb.
Vim li cas qhov txawv? Nws yog vim yog cov se tshiab ntawm Tebchaws Meskas. Nyob rau Hnub Xyoo Tshiab, tsoomfwv Meskas tau pib them se 25% rau cov tungsten Suav.4Cov tuam txhab Asmeskas tab tom sim yuav khoom los ntawm lwm lub tebchaws xws li Nyab Laj lossis Brazil. Tab sis tsis muaj khoom txaus nyob ntawd. Yog li, lawv yuav tsum tau them tus nqi siab heev.
3. Cobalt: Qhov Tsis Txaus Dag
Cobalt yog qhov tseem ceeb rau kev ua cov cuab yeej ua haujlwm siab (xws li M35 hlau). Kev ua lag luam rau Cobalt yog vwm tam sim no.
Kev txav loj ntawm Congo
Feem ntau ntawm Cobalt hauv ntiaj teb los ntawm Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Tsoomfwv nyob ntawd xav tau nyiaj ntau dua. Yog li, lawv tau teem ib lub txwv. Lawv hais tias lawv tsuas yog yuav xa tawm 96,600 tonnes hauv xyoo 2026.5
Nov yog qhov teeb meem. Lub ntiaj teb xav tau ntau dua li ntawd. Cov kev xam luv luv qhia tias tsawg kawg yog 100,000 tonnes xav tau.
Kev Pab Cuam "Cuav"
Tej zaum koj yuav pom xov xwm tias Congo tau ncua lawv lub sijhawm kawg mus txog rau lub Peb Hlis 2026. Ceev faj nrog cov xov xwm no. Lawv tsuas yog ua li no vim tias muaj ntau lub tsheb thauj khoom daig ntawm ciam teb.6Lawv tsuas yog tshem tawm qhov kev sib tsoo ntawm txoj kev xwb. Qhov txwv rau tag nrho xyoo 2026 tseem tsis tau hloov pauv.
Vim yog qhov txwv no, tus nqi ntawm Cobalt ntawm London Metal Exchange (LME) tau nce siab tshaj $ 53,000 lub lim tiam no.7
4. Cov Hlau Ceev: Leej Twg Them Nqi?
Qhov no cuam tshuam li cas rau cov chaw tsim khoom uas ua cov laum thiab cov tshuab txiav?
Tus nqi ntawm cov hlau sib xyaw
Los ntawm cov npe nqi ntawm cov tuam txhab hlau loj hauv Tebchaws Europe xws li Erasteel, lawv them tus nqi ntxiv hu ua "alloy surcharge." Rau Lub Ib Hlis 2026, tus nqi no yog nyob ib ncig ntawm 1,919 Euros ib tuj.8Nws poob qis me ntsis ntawm lub Kaum Ob Hlis, tab sis nws tseem siab heev keeb kwm.
Yog koj yuav cov hlau M35 (uas muaj Cobalt nyob hauv), koj yuav them ntau dua li cov hlau M2 ib txwm muaj. Qhov sib txawv ntawm ob tus nqi no tab tom dav zuj zus.
Kev thov rov qab los
Cov nqi siab heev, tab sis puas muaj neeg yuav? Yog.
Cov ntaub ntawv "PMI" rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis yog qhov qhab nia uas qhia peb yog tias cov chaw tsim khoom tsis khoom. Tuam Tshoj qhov qhab nia yog 50.1.10Txhua qhov qhab nia tshaj 50 txhais tau tias kev loj hlob. Qhov no yog thawj zaug hauv ntau lub hlis uas nws tau zoo. Nws txhais tau tias cov chaw tsim khoom tab tom khiav, thiab lawv xav tau cov cuab yeej.
5. Peb Yuav Tsum Ua Li Cas? (Cov Lus Qhia Txog Kev Npaj)
Raws li tag nrho cov kev tshawb fawb no, ntawm no yog qee cov lus qhia rau ob peb lub hlis tom ntej.
1. Tsis txhob tos kom tus nqi poob qis.
Cov nqi siab tsis yog ib qho kev nce siab ib ntus. Lawv yog vim tsoomfwv cov cai (quotas thiab tariffs). Cov cai no yuav tsis ploj mus sai sai no. Yog tias koj xav tau cov khoom siv rau Q2, yuav tam sim no.
2. Saib qhov "Kab tawm".
Yog koj yuav tau cov cuab yeej ua nyob rau hauv cov teb chaws uas tsis raug cuam tshuam los ntawm cov se ntawm Teb Chaws Asmeskas, koj yuav txuag tau nyiaj. Tab sis ceev faj. Cov khoom siv nyob rau hauv cov teb chaws ntawd tsawg heev.
3. Siv Dua Txhua Yam.
Cov hlau seem tam sim no zoo li kub. Cov laum laum qub muaj tungsten thiab cobalt. Yog tias koj khiav ib lub Hoobkas, tsis txhob muab pov tseg. Muag lawv lossis pauv lawv. Tus nqi ntawm cov tungsten seem tau nce 160% hauv xyoo tas los.11
Rau cov neeg xa khoom thoob ntiaj teb, cov lag luam wholesale, thiab cov neeg faib khoom:
Kev hloov pauv ntawm kev ua lag luam thaum ntxov xyoo 2026 coj cov teeb meem rau kev ua lag luam, tsis yog tsuas yog cov nqi siab dua xwb. Yam Koj Yuav Tsum Tau Ua tib zoo saib xyuas:
1. Kev Ruaj Ntseg ntawm Tus Nqi Tseem Ceeb Ntau Dua Li Tus Nqi Tam Sim No
Nyob rau hauv ib puag ncig tam sim no, kev caum tus nqi poob qis luv luv muaj kev pheej hmoo ntau dua. Kev hloov pauv txoj cai ntau zaus, kev tswj hwm kev xa khoom tawm, thiab cov khoom siv raw txhais tau tias tus nqi tuaj yeem nce sai sai thiab tsis paub ua ntej.
Ib tus khub muag khoom ruaj khov uas muaj kev txiav txim siab txog tus nqi pob tshab tab tom muaj nqis ntau dua li tus nqi qis tshaj plaws.
2. Lub Sijhawm Ua Ntej thiab Keeb Kwm Tam Sim No Yog Cov Yam Tseem Ceeb Tshaj Plaws
Lub teb chaws keeb kwm, peev xwm tsim khoom, thiab cov kev xa khoom siv ncaj qha cuam tshuam rau kev ntseeg tau ntawm kev xa khoom.
Tej thaj chaw uas tsis yog se yuav muaj cov txiaj ntsig luv luv rau tus nqi, tab sis lub peev xwm tsawg thiab kev muab khoom tsis ruaj khov tuaj yeem them cov txiaj ntsig ntawd sai sai.
3. Kev Npaj Khoom Muag Yuav Tsum Muaj Lub Caij Nyoog Ntev Dua
Txoj kev npaj "yuav thaum tus nqi poob" ib txwm tsis zoo. Cov neeg yuav khoom raug txhawb kom npaj kev yuav khoom tsawg kawg yog ib feem peb ntawm lub sijhawm ua ntej thiab tau txais cov SKU tseem ceeb thaum ntxov, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau cov cuab yeej txiav cobalt- thiab tungsten-based.
Peb Lub Luag Haujlwm Ua Tus Chaw Tsim Khoom:
Ua ib lub tuam txhab tsim cov cuab yeej thiab cov neeg muab khoom mus sij hawm ntev, peb ntseeg tias peb lub luag haujlwm tsis yog ua kom kev lag luam ntshai ntxiv, tab sis los pab peb cov neeg koom tes daws qhov teeb meem tsis paub meej nrog cov ntaub ntawv meej dua thiab kev npaj ua tau tiag tiag.
Peb lub hom phiaj rau lub hlis tom ntej no yuav yog:
● Tswj cov sijhawm tsim khoom ruaj khov txawm tias cov khoom siv raw tsis ruaj khov
● Kev siv cov khoom siv kom zoo tshaj plaws, suav nrog kev rov ua dua tshiab thiab kev tswj cov khoom tsim tau zoo dua
● Sib txuas lus nrog cov neeg siv khoom thaum ntxov txog kev nyuaj siab ntawm tus nqi thiab kev hloov pauv ntawm lub sijhawm ua khoom xa tuaj
●Tsis txhob muab tus nqi kwv yees xwb, thiab muab cov lus hais uas piav qhia tau raws li cov ntaub ntawv.
Peb nkag siab tias peb cov neeg siv khoom kuj raug kev nyuaj siab los ntawm lawv tus kheej lub khw. Kev koom tes ruaj khov, nyob rau hauv qhov chaw no, nyob ntawm kev ntseeg siab, kev pob tshab, thiab kev sib koom ua ke paub txog kev pheej hmoo, tsis yog kev sib tw nqi luv luv.
6. Cov Lus Qhia Luv: Ib Qho Kev Ua Haujlwm Tshiab rau Kev Lag Luam Cuab Yeej
Kev ua lag luam tau hloov pauv lawm. Nws tsis yog hais txog kev muab khoom thiab kev thov xwb, tab sis kuj cuam tshuam nrog kev nom kev tswv thiab ciam teb. Ib daim ntaub thaiv hlau ntawm cov peev txheej tau poob qis, ua rau txhua yam kim dua. Lub Ib Hlis 2026 yuav raug nco txog tias yog lub sijhawm tseem ceeb hauv kev ua lag luam minerals tseem ceeb. Lub hlis no tau pom kev tawg ntawm cov tswv yim lag luam dawb tawm tsam qhov tseeb ntawm geopolitics, muab txoj hauv kev rau lub ntiaj teb tshiab uas txhais los ntawm kev thaiv, quotas, thiab kev tswj hwm kev lag luam. Rau txhua tus neeg koom nrog hauv txoj saw hlau kev lag luam, kev hloov kho rau qhov qub tshiab ntawm "tus nqi siab, kev hloov pauv siab, thiab kev tswj hwm nruj" tsis yog tsuas yog qhov tseem ceeb rau kev ciaj sia xwb tab sis kuj yog qhov tseem ceeb rau kev ruaj ntseg sib tw hauv kaum xyoo tom ntej.
Kev ua lag luam cov cuab yeej txiav tab tom nkag mus rau theem uas geopolitics, kev cai lij choj, thiab kev ruaj ntseg ntawm cov peev txheej tseem ceeb npaum li lub peev xwm tsim khoom.
Rau ob tus neeg yuav khoom thiab cov neeg muag khoom, lo lus nug tseem ceeb tsis yog lawm
Kuv yuav pheej yig npaum li cas?
tab sis
Kuv yuav ua li cas thiaj nrhiav tau kev pabcuam zoo rau 12-24 lub hlis tom ntej no?
Cov neeg uas hloov kho thaum ntxov rau qhov tseeb tshiab no yuav nyob rau qhov chaw zoo dua thaum qhov kev hloov pauv dhau los ua qhov ib txwm muaj es tsis yog qhov tshwj xeeb.
Lus Ceeb Toom: Daim ntawv tshaj tawm no yog sau ua ke raws li cov ntaub ntawv lag luam uas muaj rau pej xeem, xov xwm kev lag luam, thiab cov ntaub ntawv txij li Lub Ib Hlis 4, 2026. Muaj kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev lag luam; kev nqis peev yuav tsum tau ceev faj.
Cov haujlwm tau hais txog
1. Suav teb teev cov tuam txhab uas tau tso cai xa tawm cov hlau tseem ceeb hauv xyoo 2026-2027 - Investing.com, nkag mus rau Lub Ib Hlis 4, 2026,https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/china-names-companies-allowed-to-export-critical-metals-in-20262027-93CH-4425149
2. Tus nqi Tungsten txuas ntxiv nce siab thaum cov neeg tsim khoom loj tsa tus nqi cog lus ntev, cim qhov nce siab txog 150% xyoo no [SMM Lus Qhia] - Shanghai Metal Market, nkag mus rau Lub Ib Hlis 4, 2026,https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103664822
3. Cov nqi Tungsten hauv Tebchaws Europe Sib Tw Siab Dua vim Suav Teb Tau Txais Txiaj Ntsig, Kev Tsim Khoom Ua Ntej Hnub So Tsis Muaj Peev Xwm Ua Rau Muaj Kev Nce Siab Ntxiv [SMM Kev Tshuaj Xyuas] - Shanghai Metal Market, nkag mus rau Lub Ib Hlis 4, 2026,https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103669348
4. Tebchaws Meskas Ua tiav Tshooj 301 Kev Nce Se rau Cov Khoom Xa Tuaj ntawm Tuam Tshoj, nkag mus rau Lub Ib Hlis 4, 2026,https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/united-states-finalizes-section-301-tariff-increases-imports-china
5. DRC yuav hloov txoj cai txwv tsis pub xa tawm cobalt los ntawm lwm lub teb chaws nrog cov quotas - Project Blue, nkag mus rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis 27, 2025,https://projectblue.com/blue/news-analysis/1319/drc-to-replace-cobalt-export-ban-with-quotas
6. Lub DRC tau txiav txim siab txuas ntxiv xyoo 2025 cobalt xa tawm mus rau Q1 2026., nkag mus rau Lub Ib Hlis 4, 2026,https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103701184
7.Cobalt - Nqe - Daim Ntawv Qhia - Cov Ntaub Ntawv Keeb Kwm - Xov Xwm - Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam, nkag mus rau Lub Ib Hlis 4, 2026,https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/cobalt
8. Kev them nqi ntxiv rau cov hlau sib xyaw | Legierungszuschlag.info, nkag mus rau Lub Ib Hlis 4, 2026,https://legierungszuschlag.info/en/
9. Tiangong International Co Ltd Tus Nqi Tshuag Niaj Hnub No | HK: 0826 Nyob - Investing.com, nkag mus rau Lub Ib Hlis 4, 2026,https://www.investing.com/equities/tiangong-international-co-ltd
10. Kev rov qab los ntawm kev tsim khoom hauv lub Kaum Ob Hlis, nkag mus rau Lub Ib Hlis 4, 2026,https://www.ecns.cn/news/economy/2026-01-02/detail-iheymvap1611554.shtml
11. Tus nqi ntawm Tungsten Concentrate nce 7% hauv ib hnub - Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 16, 2025, nkag mus rau Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 27, 2025,https://www.ctia.com.cn/en/news/46639.html
Lub sijhawm tshaj tawm: Lub Ib Hlis-05-2026